Goiás U20 5–0 Jataiense U20: Result & Stats

Goiás U20

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jataiense U20

3/22/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Goiás U2069%

×Draw18%

Jataiense U2013%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goiás U20Expected goals in this matchJataiense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.91

Goiás U20

2.33

Jataiense U20

0.91

Goiás U20 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Goiás U20

2.00

Jataiense U20

1.00

allows per match

Goiás U20

0.81

Jataiense U20

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goiás U20+0.00on par

Jataiense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiás U20 ↓

Jataiense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Goiás U20 or draw

87%

Goiás U20 or Jataiense U20

82%

Draw or Jataiense U20

31%

Winning margin

Goiás U20 wins by 2+

46%

Jataiense U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Goiás U20 1+ goals

90%

Goiás U20 2+ goals

67%

Goiás U20 3+ goals

41%

Jataiense U20 1+ goals

60%

Jataiense U20 2+ goals

23%

Jataiense U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goiás U20 (draw refunded)

84%

Jataiense U20 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiás U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Jataiense U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiás U20 attack 2.00 + Jataiense U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Jataiense U20 attack 1.00 + Goiás U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Goiás U20 scores more

69%

level

18%

Jataiense U20 scores more

13%

Goiás U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Goiás U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff