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Goiás U20 vs Guanabara City U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Goiás U20
Goiás U20
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
3/15/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Goiás U2051%
×Draw24%
Guanabara City U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goiás U20
1.66
Guanabara City U20
1.08

Goiás U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Goiás U20
2.00
Guanabara City U20
1.36

allows per match

Goiás U20
0.81
Guanabara City U20
1.32

finishing

Goiás U20+0.00on par
Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiás U20 ↓

Guanabara City U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Goiás U20 or draw
75%
Goiás U20 or Guanabara City U20
76%
Draw or Guanabara City U20
49%

Winning margin

Goiás U20 wins by 2+
27%
Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Goiás U20 1+ goals
81%
Goiás U20 2+ goals
49%
Goiás U20 3+ goals
23%
Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
66%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
29%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Goiás U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiás U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Guanabara City U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiás U20 attack 2.00 + Guanabara City U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.36 + Goiás U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Goiás U20 scores more
51%
level
24%
Guanabara City U20 scores more
25%

Goiás U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Goiás U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goiás U20 vs Guanabara City U20

Goiás U20 beat Guanabara City U20 5-1 in Goiano U20 on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro in Goiânia, Goiás.