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Goias U17 vs Ceara U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Goias U17
Goias U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceara U17
Ceara U17
Unknown 82'
8/28/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 9Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Goias U1748%
×Draw38%
Ceara U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias U17
0.90
Ceara U17
0.35

Goias U17 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Goias U17
1.00
Ceara U17
0.20

allows per match

Goias U17
0.50
Ceara U17
0.80

finishing

Goias U17+0.00on par
Ceara U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 87Over: 1387%Under
  • Under87
  • Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 82Yes: 1882%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias U17 ↓

Ceara U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–029%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–026%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
71%29%1.5
36%64%2.5
13%87%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Goias U17 or draw
86%
Goias U17 or Ceara U17
62%
Draw or Ceara U17
52%

Winning margin

Goias U17 wins by 2+
18%
Ceara U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Goias U17 1+ goals
59%
Goias U17 2+ goals
23%
Goias U17 3+ goals
6%
Ceara U17 1+ goals
30%
Ceara U17 2+ goals
5%
Ceara U17 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Goias U17 (draw refunded)
77%
Ceara U17 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Ceara U17 away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias U17 attack 1.00 + Ceara U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ceara U17 attack 0.20 + Goias U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Goias U17 scores more
48%
level
38%
Ceara U17 scores more
14%

Goias U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Goias U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goias U17 vs Ceara U17

Goias U17 beat Ceara U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 28, 2024.

Goals: ? (82').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro in Goiânia, Goiás.