Goias U17 0–2 Botafogo U17: Result & Stats

Goias U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo U17

C. Valle 72'

K. Cruz 60'

8/7/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Goias U1754%

×Draw25%

Botafogo U1721%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goias U17Expected goals in this matchBotafogo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.90

Goias U17

1.63

Botafogo U17

0.90

Goias U17 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

0.50

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Goias U17

1.00

Botafogo U17

1.30

allows per match

Goias U17

0.50

Botafogo U17

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias U17+0.00on par

Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias U17 ↓

Botafogo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Goias U17 or draw

79%

Goias U17 or Botafogo U17

75%

Draw or Botafogo U17

46%

Winning margin

Goias U17 wins by 2+

29%

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Goias U17 1+ goals

80%

Goias U17 2+ goals

48%

Goias U17 3+ goals

22%

Botafogo U17 1+ goals

59%

Botafogo U17 2+ goals

23%

Botafogo U17 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias U17 (draw refunded)

72%

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Botafogo U17 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias U17 attack 1.00 + Botafogo U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Botafogo U17 attack 1.30 + Goias U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Goias U17 scores more

54%

level

25%

Botafogo U17 scores more

21%

Goias U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Goias U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

K. Cruz

72'

C. Valle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff