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Goiânia vs Aparecidense — League #628 2026

Goiânia
Goiânia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aparecidense
Aparecidense
2/25/2024League #628League #628 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Goiânia37%
×Draw32%
Aparecidense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goiânia
1.00
Aparecidense
0.88

Goiânia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Goiânia
1.00
Aparecidense
0.75

allows per match

Goiânia
1.00
Aparecidense
1.00

finishing

Goiânia+0.00on par
Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiânia ↓

Aparecidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Goiânia or draw
69%
Goiânia or Aparecidense
68%
Draw or Aparecidense
63%

Winning margin

Goiânia wins by 2+
14%
Aparecidense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Goiânia 1+ goals
63%
Goiânia 2+ goals
26%
Goiânia 3+ goals
8%
Aparecidense 1+ goals
59%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
22%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Goiânia (draw refunded)
55%
Aparecidense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiânia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiânia attack 1.00 + Aparecidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Aparecidense attack 0.75 + Goiânia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Goiânia scores more
37%
level
32%
Aparecidense scores more
31%

Goiânia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Goiânia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #628: Goiânia 0–1 Aparecidense

Aparecidense beat Goiânia 1-0 in League #628 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Pedro Ludovico Teixeira in Goiânia, Goiás.