Goianésia 2–0 CEOV Operário: Result & Stats

Goianésia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CEOV Operário

Ricardo 90+5'

Leo Carvalho 53'

11/22/2020

Serie D · Round 13Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Goianésia43%

×Draw28%

CEOV Operário29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoianésiaExpected goals in this matchCEOV Operário

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.00

Goianésia

1.28

CEOV Operário

1.00

Goianésia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.19

creates per match

0.73

1.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Goianésia

1.19

CEOV Operário

0.73

allows per match

Goianésia

1.27

CEOV Operário

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goianésia+0.00on par

CEOV Operário+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goianésia ↓

CEOV Operário →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Goianésia or draw

71%

Goianésia or CEOV Operário

72%

Draw or CEOV Operário

57%

Winning margin

Goianésia wins by 2+

19%

CEOV Operário wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Goianésia 1+ goals

72%

Goianésia 2+ goals

37%

Goianésia 3+ goals

14%

CEOV Operário 1+ goals

63%

CEOV Operário 2+ goals

26%

CEOV Operário 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Goianésia (draw refunded)

60%

CEOV Operário (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goianésia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

CEOV Operário away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goianésia attack 1.19 + CEOV Operário defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

CEOV Operário attack 0.73 + Goianésia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goianésia scores more

43%

level

28%

CEOV Operário scores more

29%

Goianésia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goianésia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Leo Carvalho← Carlos Henrique

53'

Leo Carvalho

56'

Guto← João Pedro

67'

Ricardo← Vanilson

73'

Bosco← Lukinhas

85'

Lucas Gabriel← Jonathan

90+5'

Ricardo

Goianésia

CEOV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Luan Carlos

46'▲Leo Carvalho←▼Carlos Henrique

67'▲Ricardo←▼Vanilson

73'▲Bosco←▼Lukinhas

85'▲Lucas Gabriel←▼Jonathan

Goianésia substitutes

CarvalhoRicardoBoscoGabrielDanielLeiteFranklinLuizRailson

Manager: Edson Ferreira

56'▲Guto←▼João Pedro

CEOV Operário substitutes

GutoGabriel