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Goianesia U20 vs Itauçu U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Goianesia U20
Goianesia U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Itauçu U20
Itauçu U20
3/1/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Goianesia U2062%
×Draw20%
Itauçu U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goianesia U20
2.20
Itauçu U20
1.10

Goianesia U20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Goianesia U20
1.40
Itauçu U20
1.20

allows per match

Goianesia U20
1.00
Itauçu U20
3.00

finishing

Goianesia U20+0.00on par
Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goianesia U20 ↓

Itauçu U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Goianesia U20 or draw
82%
Goianesia U20 or Itauçu U20
80%
Draw or Itauçu U20
38%

Winning margin

Goianesia U20 wins by 2+
39%
Itauçu U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Goianesia U20 1+ goals
89%
Goianesia U20 2+ goals
64%
Goianesia U20 3+ goals
37%
Itauçu U20 1+ goals
67%
Itauçu U20 2+ goals
30%
Itauçu U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)
77%
Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goianesia U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Itauçu U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goianesia U20 attack 1.40 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Itauçu U20 attack 1.20 + Goianesia U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Goianesia U20 scores more
62%
level
20%
Itauçu U20 scores more
18%

Goianesia U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Goianesia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goianesia U20 vs Itauçu U20

Goianesia U20 beat Itauçu U20 3-2 in Goiano U20 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira in Goianésia, Goiás.