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Goianesia U20 vs Guanabara City U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Goianesia U20
Goianesia U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
4/19/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Goianesia U2041%
×Draw27%
Guanabara City U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goianesia U20
1.36
Guanabara City U20
1.18

Goianesia U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Goianesia U20
1.40
Guanabara City U20
1.36

allows per match

Goianesia U20
1.00
Guanabara City U20
1.32

finishing

Goianesia U20+0.00on par
Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goianesia U20 ↓

Guanabara City U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Goianesia U20 or draw
68%
Goianesia U20 or Guanabara City U20
73%
Draw or Guanabara City U20
59%

Winning margin

Goianesia U20 wins by 2+
19%
Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Goianesia U20 1+ goals
74%
Goianesia U20 2+ goals
39%
Goianesia U20 3+ goals
16%
Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
69%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
33%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goianesia U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Guanabara City U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goianesia U20 attack 1.40 + Guanabara City U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.36 + Goianesia U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goianesia U20 scores more
41%
level
27%
Guanabara City U20 scores more
32%

Goianesia U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Goianesia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goianesia U20 vs Guanabara City U20

Goianesia U20 beat Guanabara City U20 1-0 in Goiano U20 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira in Goianésia, Goiás.