Goianesia U20 1–1 Gremio Anapolis U20

Goianesia U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio Anapolis U20

5/3/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Goianesia U2046%

×Draw25%

Gremio Anapolis U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goianesia U20Expected goals in this matchGremio Anapolis U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.17

Goianesia U20

1.53

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.17

Goianesia U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Goianesia U20

1.40

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.33

allows per match

Goianesia U20

1.00

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goianesia U20 ↓

Gremio Anapolis U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Goianesia U20 or draw

71%

Goianesia U20 or Gremio Anapolis U20

75%

Draw or Gremio Anapolis U20

54%

Winning margin

Goianesia U20 wins by 2+

23%

Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Goianesia U20 1+ goals

78%

Goianesia U20 2+ goals

45%

Goianesia U20 3+ goals

20%

Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals

69%

Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals

33%

Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goianesia U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Gremio Anapolis U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goianesia U20 attack 1.40 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.33 + Goianesia U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Goianesia U20 scores more

46%

level

25%

Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more

29%

Goianesia U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Goianesia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff