Goianesia U20 0–0 Goiás U20: Result & Stats

Goianesia U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goiás U20

3/16/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Waldeir José de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Goianesia U2034%

×Draw26%

Goiás U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goianesia U20Expected goals in this matchGoiás U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.40

Goianesia U20

1.25

Goiás U20

1.40

Goiás U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.79

1.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Goianesia U20

1.40

Goiás U20

1.79

allows per match

Goianesia U20

1.00

Goiás U20

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Goiás U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goianesia U20 ↓

Goiás U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Goianesia U20 or draw

60%

Goianesia U20 or Goiás U20

74%

Draw or Goiás U20

66%

Winning margin

Goianesia U20 wins by 2+

14%

Goiás U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Goianesia U20 1+ goals

71%

Goianesia U20 2+ goals

36%

Goianesia U20 3+ goals

13%

Goiás U20 1+ goals

75%

Goiás U20 2+ goals

41%

Goiás U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Goiás U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goianesia U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Goiás U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goianesia U20 attack 1.40 + Goiás U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Goiás U20 attack 1.79 + Goianesia U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Goianesia U20 scores more

34%

level

26%

Goiás U20 scores more

40%

Goiás U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Goiás U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff