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Göfis vs Schruns — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Göfis
Göfis
FT
2 – 1
Schruns
Schruns
11/6/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 19Sportplatz Sc Göfis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Göfis49%
×Draw22%
Schruns29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göfis
2.02
Schruns
1.53

Göfis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 31 away

creates per match

Göfis
1.63
Schruns
1.35

allows per match

Göfis
1.71
Schruns
2.42

finishing

Göfis+0.00on par
Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göfis ↓

Schruns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Göfis or draw
71%
Göfis or Schruns
78%
Draw or Schruns
51%

Winning margin

Göfis wins by 2+
28%
Schruns wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Göfis 1+ goals
87%
Göfis 2+ goals
60%
Göfis 3+ goals
33%
Schruns 1+ goals
78%
Schruns 2+ goals
45%
Schruns 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Göfis (draw refunded)
62%
Schruns (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göfis at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göfis attack 1.63 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.02

Schruns attack 1.35 + Göfis defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Göfis scores more
49%
level
22%
Schruns scores more
29%

Göfis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Göfis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Göfis 2–1 Schruns

Göfis beat Schruns 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sc Göfis in Göfis.