Göfis 2–2 Rot-Weiß Rankweil: Result & Stats

Göfis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

7/30/2022

Regionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 2Sportplatz Sc Göfis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Göfis44%

×Draw19%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöfisExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Rankweil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.26

Göfis

2.50

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

2.26

Göfis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 52 away

2.00

creates per match

1.79

2.73

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Göfis

2.00

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.79

allows per match

Göfis

2.73

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göfis+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göfis ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Göfis or draw

64%

Göfis or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

81%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

56%

Winning margin

Göfis wins by 2+

27%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Göfis 1+ goals

92%

Göfis 2+ goals

71%

Göfis 3+ goals

45%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

89%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

66%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Göfis (draw refunded)

55%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göfis at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göfis attack 2.00 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Göfis defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Göfis scores more

44%

level

19%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

36%

Göfis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Göfis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff