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Göfis vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Göfis
Göfis
FT
3 – 1
Fussach
Fussach
8/8/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 1Sportplatz Sc Göfis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Göfis45%
×Draw22%
Fussach33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göfis
1.88
Fussach
1.59

Göfis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 47 away

creates per match

Göfis
1.63
Fussach
1.47

allows per match

Göfis
1.71
Fussach
2.13

finishing

Göfis+0.00on par
Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göfis ↓

Fussach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Göfis or draw
67%
Göfis or Fussach
78%
Draw or Fussach
55%

Winning margin

Göfis wins by 2+
24%
Fussach wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Göfis 1+ goals
85%
Göfis 2+ goals
56%
Göfis 3+ goals
29%
Fussach 1+ goals
80%
Fussach 2+ goals
47%
Fussach 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Göfis (draw refunded)
58%
Fussach (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göfis at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göfis attack 1.63 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Fussach attack 1.47 + Göfis defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Göfis scores more
45%
level
22%
Fussach scores more
33%

Göfis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Göfis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göfis vs Fussach

Göfis beat Fussach 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sc Göfis in Göfis.