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Göfis vs Dornbirner SV — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Göfis
Göfis
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
4/19/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 18Sportplatz Sc Göfis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Göfis33%
×Draw23%
Dornbirner SV44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göfis
1.57
Dornbirner SV
1.83

Dornbirner SV creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 25 away

creates per match

Göfis
1.63
Dornbirner SV
1.96

allows per match

Göfis
1.71
Dornbirner SV
1.52

finishing

Göfis+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göfis ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Göfis or draw
56%
Göfis or Dornbirner SV
77%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
67%

Winning margin

Göfis wins by 2+
16%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Göfis 1+ goals
79%
Göfis 2+ goals
46%
Göfis 3+ goals
21%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
84%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
54%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Göfis (draw refunded)
43%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göfis at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göfis attack 1.63 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dornbirner SV attack 1.96 + Göfis defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Göfis scores more
33%
level
23%
Dornbirner SV scores more
44%

Dornbirner SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göfis vs Dornbirner SV

Dornbirner SV beat Göfis 3-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sc Göfis in Göfis.