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GOES vs Smitshoek — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GOES
GOES
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Smitshoek
Smitshoek
3/22/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 27Sportpark Het Schenge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GOES48%
×Draw20%
Smitshoek31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOES
2.28
Smitshoek
1.82

GOES creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

GOES
1.50
Smitshoek
1.76

allows per match

GOES
1.88
Smitshoek
3.06

finishing

GOES+0.00on par
Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOES ↓

Smitshoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

GOES or draw
69%
GOES or Smitshoek
80%
Draw or Smitshoek
52%

Winning margin

GOES wins by 2+
29%
Smitshoek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GOES 1+ goals
90%
GOES 2+ goals
66%
GOES 3+ goals
39%
Smitshoek 1+ goals
84%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
54%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

GOES (draw refunded)
61%
Smitshoek (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOES at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOES attack 1.50 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.28

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + GOES defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GOES scores more
48%
level
20%
Smitshoek scores more
31%

GOES at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GOES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: GOES 1–3 Smitshoek

Smitshoek beat GOES 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Schenge in Goes.