Godoy Cruz 1–1 San Lorenzo: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Lorenzo

N. Ulariaga 35'

4 A. Giay 45+14'

10/12/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz37%

×Draw31%

San Lorenzo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.98

Godoy Cruz

1.05

San Lorenzo

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

San Lorenzo

0.86

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

San Lorenzo

0.93

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

San Lorenzo+0.08on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

67%

Godoy Cruz or San Lorenzo

69%

Draw or San Lorenzo

63%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

14%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

65%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

28%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

9%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

62%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

26%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

53%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

37%

level

31%

San Lorenzo scores more

33%

Godoy Cruz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Remedi

San Lorenzo · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Eric Remedi

28'

Cristian Ferreira

35'

N. Ulariaga↳ T. Conechny

45+6'

Adam BareiroGoal cancelled

45+14'

4 A. Giay↳ E. Remedi

47'

S. Rodríguez← N. Ulariaga

47'

M. Mendoza← F. Rasmussen

47'

E. Pereyra← T. Galdames

47'

G. Abrego← N. Fernández

47'

S. Andino← B. Cejas

47'

F. Altamira← T. Conechny

47'

J. Pérez← V. Poggi

47'

E. Cerutti← I. Leguizamón

47'

A. Cuello← A. Bareiro

47'

G. Campi← G. Luján

47'

F. López← A. Giay

47'

S. Sosa← E. Remedi

47'

N. Bustos← C. Ferreira

47'

Muniain← N. Barrios

58'

Fabricio López

67'

Mateo Mendoza

75'

S. Martínez← J. Pérez

82'

N. Fernández← G. Abrego

82'

M. Reali← S. Sosa

82'

F. Fydriszewski← E. Cerutti

88'

N. Barrios← A. Cuello

88'

I. Leguizamón← N. Bustos

Shots

Statistics

GodoySan

Overview

0%Possession0%

2Total Shots1

3Corners1

4Fouls5

Shots

2Total Shots1

0On Target0

2Off Target1

0Blocked0

Passing

0%Possession0%

Goalkeeping

0Saves0

Discipline

4Fouls5

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1