Godoy Cruz 2–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Platense

E. Larrosa 85'

S. Rodríguez 17'

S. Marcich 53'

7/5/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 23Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz43%

×Draw29%

Platense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.95

Godoy Cruz

1.25

Platense

0.95

Godoy Cruz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

Platense

0.80

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

Platense

1.33

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

72%

Godoy Cruz or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

57%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Platense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

71%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

36%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

13%

Platense 1+ goals

61%

Platense 2+ goals

25%

Platense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

61%

Platense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Platense attack 0.80 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

43%

level

29%

Platense scores more

28%

Godoy Cruz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. Marcich

Platense · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

S. Rodríguez↳ P. Barrios

20'

20'

43'

45'

53'

S. Marcich↳ M. Quiroga

63'

T. Conechny← J. Andrada

64'

Franco Díaz

66'

N. Servetto← M. Quiroga

69'

M. Ramírez← H. López

77'

I. Schor← N. Castro

77'

A. Sabella← V. Taborda

80'

C. Núñez← G. Abrego

80'

J. Meli← T. Galdames

80'

E. Larrosa← S. Rodríguez

85'

E. Larrosa↳ T. Conechny

86'

Enzo Larrosa

89'

N. Zeineddin← S. Marcich

90+1'

Alexis Sabella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GodoyPlatense

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots14

4Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

338Total Passes338

248Accurate Passes238

73%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2