Godoy Cruz 4–1 Deportivo Riestra: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

F. Altamira 66'

D. Barrea 45+1', 10'

S. Rodríguez 8'

B. Sánchez 84'

8/19/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Feliciano Gambarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz43%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Riestra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.89

Godoy Cruz

1.21

Deportivo Riestra

0.89

Godoy Cruz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.18

creates per match

0.68

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

Deportivo Riestra

0.68

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

Deportivo Riestra

1.25

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

73%

Godoy Cruz or Deportivo Riestra

71%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

57%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

70%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

34%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

43%

level

29%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

27%

Godoy Cruz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

F. Altamira

Godoy Cruz · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Jonathan Goya

8'

S. Rodríguez↳ F. Altamira

10'

D. Barrea↳ S. Rodríguez

19'

45'

45'

45+1'

53'

56'

66'

F. Altamira↳ N. Fernández

67'

G. Moreyra← D. Barrea

67'

M. Pino← S. Rodríguez

67'

G. Abrego← V. Poggi

69'

M. Sanabria← P. Ramírez

70'

J. Goitía← G. Pereira

73'

A. Villalobos← N. Fernández

76'

M. Santiago← F. Altamira

79'

Elías PereyraGoal cancelled

83'

Pablo Monje

84'

B. Sánchez

86'

Pier BarriosCard upgrade

87'

Pier Barrios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GodoyDeportivo

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots10

1.62Expected Goals (xG)1.19

3Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

6On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked1

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

418Total Passes299

302Accurate Passes186

72%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-1.71Goals Prevented-1.71

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2