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Godoy Cruz Res. vs Lanús Res. — Reserve League 2022

Godoy Cruz Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lanús Res.
Lanús Res.
5/7/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Godoy Cruz Res.39%
×Draw26%
Lanús Res.36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.40
Lanús Res.
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 64 away

creates per match

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.35
Lanús Res.
1.59

allows per match

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.08
Lanús Res.
1.45

finishing

Godoy Cruz Res.+0.00on par
Lanús Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz Res. ↓

Lanús Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz Res. or draw
64%
Godoy Cruz Res. or Lanús Res.
74%
Draw or Lanús Res.
61%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz Res. wins by 2+
18%
Lanús Res. wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz Res. 1+ goals
75%
Godoy Cruz Res. 2+ goals
41%
Godoy Cruz Res. 3+ goals
17%
Lanús Res. 1+ goals
74%
Lanús Res. 2+ goals
38%
Lanús Res. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz Res. (draw refunded)
52%
Lanús Res. (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz Res. at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Lanús Res. away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz Res. attack 1.35 + Lanús Res. defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lanús Res. attack 1.59 + Godoy Cruz Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Godoy Cruz Res. scores more
39%
level
26%
Lanús Res. scores more
36%

Godoy Cruz Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Godoy Cruz Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Godoy Cruz Res. vs Lanús Res.

Lanús Res. beat Godoy Cruz Res. 3-2 in Reserve League on May 7, 2025.