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Godoy Cruz Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res — Reserve League 2022

Godoy Cruz Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Estudiantes La Plata Res
3/20/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Godoy Cruz Res.37%
×Draw29%
Estudiantes La Plata Res34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.16
Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.35
Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.13

allows per match

Godoy Cruz Res.
1.08
Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.97

finishing

Godoy Cruz Res.+0.00on par
Estudiantes La Plata Res+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz Res. ↓

Estudiantes La Plata Res →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz Res. or draw
66%
Godoy Cruz Res. or Estudiantes La Plata Res
71%
Draw or Estudiantes La Plata Res
63%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz Res. wins by 2+
15%
Estudiantes La Plata Res wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz Res. 1+ goals
69%
Godoy Cruz Res. 2+ goals
32%
Godoy Cruz Res. 3+ goals
11%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 1+ goals
67%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2+ goals
30%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz Res. (draw refunded)
52%
Estudiantes La Plata Res (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz Res. at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Estudiantes La Plata Res away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz Res. attack 1.35 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.13 + Godoy Cruz Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Godoy Cruz Res. scores more
37%
level
29%
Estudiantes La Plata Res scores more
34%

Godoy Cruz Res. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Godoy Cruz Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Godoy Cruz Res. 2–3 Estudiantes La Plata Res

Estudiantes La Plata Res beat Godoy Cruz Res. 3-2 in Reserve League on March 20, 2024.