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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 1
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
5/20/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój45%
×Draw24%
Raków Częstochowa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.65
Raków Częstochowa II
1.33

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 24% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
69%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Raków Częstochowa II
76%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
55%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
23%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
81%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
49%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
23%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
74%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
38%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
59%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
45%
level
24%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
31%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Raków Częstochowa II

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Raków Częstochowa II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.