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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 0
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój50%
×Draw23%
Piast Żmigród27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.85
Piast Żmigród
1.31

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 41% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
73%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Piast Żmigród
77%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
50%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
28%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
84%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
55%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
28%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
73%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
38%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
65%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
50%
level
23%
Piast Żmigród scores more
27%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–0 Piast Żmigród

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Piast Żmigród 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.