Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
8/13/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój54%
×Draw22%
Odra Wodzislaw24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.94
Odra Wodzislaw
1.24

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 56% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
76%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Odra Wodzislaw
78%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
46%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
31%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
86%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
58%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
30%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
71%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
35%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
69%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.94

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
54%
level
22%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
24%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 0–2 Odra Wodzislaw

Odra Wodzislaw beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.