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Goa vs Odisha — Indian Super League 2025

Goa
Goa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Odisha
Odisha
B. Fernandes 90' (pen)
P. Moreno 81'
D. Drazic 62'
V. Suhair 90'
4/10/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 8Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Goa59%
×Draw23%
Odisha18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goa
1.83
Odisha
0.90

Goa creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Goa
1.67
Odisha
1.13

allows per match

Goa
0.67
Odisha
2.00

finishing

Goa+0.00on par
Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Odisha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Goa or draw
82%
Goa or Odisha
77%
Draw or Odisha
41%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+
34%
Odisha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals
84%
Goa 2+ goals
54%
Goa 3+ goals
28%
Odisha 1+ goals
59%
Odisha 2+ goals
23%
Odisha 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)
77%
Odisha (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Odisha away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.67 + Odisha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Odisha attack 1.13 + Goa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Goa scores more
59%
level
23%
Odisha scores more
18%

Goa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
P. MorenoGoaGoa · D
7.9

Match Events

25'
Moirangthem Thoiba Singh
33'
V. Suhair← R. K P
38'
Harsh Patre
46'
R. Fernandes← H. Patre
46'
B. Fernandes← M. Nemil
54'
Aakash Sangwan
61'
D. Lalhlimpuia← B. Singh
61'
A. Rabeeh A K← M. Yasir
62'
D. Drazic
73'
N. Naik← I. Vanlalruatfela
73'
E. S. Vanspaul← R. Kumar
76'
K. Beyong← S. Bhattacharya
77'
K. Hantal← Mafela
81'
J. Lalrinzuala← A. Sangwan
81'
P. Moreno
90'
B. FernandesPenalty
90'
V. Suhair↳ E. S. Vanspaul

Possession

48%Goa

Shots

9Goa

Pass accuracy

51%Goa

Statistics

GoaOdisha
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots12
1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.70
4Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots12
5On Target4
2Off Target6
2Blocked2
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
382Total Passes416
304Accurate Passes325
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
6Offsides2

Indian Super League: Goa 3–1 Odisha

Goa beat Odisha 3-1 in Indian Super League on April 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Drazic (62'), P. Moreno (81'), B. Fernandes (90' pen), V. Suhair (90').

Odisha controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao.