Go Round 1–0 Yobe Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Go Round

FT

1 – 0

Yobe Stars

3/24/2019

NPFL · Round 12Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Go Round56%

×Draw31%

Yobe Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Go RoundExpected goals in this matchYobe Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.41

Go Round

1.19

Yobe Stars

0.41

Go Round creates 190% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

0.27

0.55

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Go Round

0.82

Yobe Stars

0.27

allows per match

Go Round

0.55

Yobe Stars

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Go Round+0.00on par

Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Round ↓

Yobe Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Go Round or draw

87%

Go Round or Yobe Stars

69%

Draw or Yobe Stars

44%

Winning margin

Go Round wins by 2+

26%

Yobe Stars wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Go Round 1+ goals

70%

Go Round 2+ goals

33%

Go Round 3+ goals

12%

Yobe Stars 1+ goals

34%

Yobe Stars 2+ goals

6%

Yobe Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Go Round (draw refunded)

81%

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Round at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Round attack 0.82 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Go Round defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Go Round scores more

56%

level

31%

Yobe Stars scores more

13%

Go Round at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Go Round will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff