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Go Round vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Go Round
Go Round
FT
1 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
1/28/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 5Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Go Round57%
×Draw29%
El Kanemi Warriors14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Go Round
1.32
El Kanemi Warriors
0.49

Go Round creates 169% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 59 away

creates per match

Go Round
0.82
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Go Round
0.55
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Go Round+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Round ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Go Round or draw
86%
Go Round or El Kanemi Warriors
71%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
43%

Winning margin

Go Round wins by 2+
28%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Go Round 1+ goals
73%
Go Round 2+ goals
38%
Go Round 3+ goals
15%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
39%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
9%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Go Round (draw refunded)
81%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Round at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Round attack 0.82 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Go Round defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Go Round scores more
57%
level
29%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
14%

Go Round at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Go Round will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Go Round 1–0 El Kanemi Warriors

Go Round beat El Kanemi Warriors 1-0 in NPFL on January 28, 2019.

The match was played at Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku).