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GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
4/19/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 25De Adelaarshorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

GO Ahead Eagles55%
×Draw22%
Waalwijk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GO Ahead Eagles
1.95
Waalwijk
1.20

GO Ahead Eagles creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 98 away

creates per match

GO Ahead Eagles
1.78
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

GO Ahead Eagles
1.36
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

GO Ahead Eagles+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GO Ahead Eagles ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

GO Ahead Eagles or draw
77%
GO Ahead Eagles or Waalwijk
78%
Draw or Waalwijk
45%

Winning margin

GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
32%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
86%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
58%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
31%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
70%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
34%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
70%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GO Ahead Eagles at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.78 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.95

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

GO Ahead Eagles scores more
55%
level
22%
Waalwijk scores more
23%

GO Ahead Eagles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "GO Ahead Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Waalwijk

GO Ahead Eagles beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Eredivisie on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at De Adelaarshorst in Deventer.