GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Heerenveen: Result & Stats

GO Ahead Eagles

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heerenveen

5/14/2025

Eredivisie · Round 33De Adelaarshorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

GO Ahead Eagles45%

×Draw24%

Heerenveen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GO Ahead EaglesExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.32

GO Ahead Eagles

1.64

Heerenveen

1.32

GO Ahead Eagles creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

1.25

1.39

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

GO Ahead Eagles

1.44

Heerenveen

1.25

allows per match

GO Ahead Eagles

1.39

Heerenveen

1.84

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

GO Ahead Eagles+0.38scores more

Heerenveen-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GO Ahead Eagles ↓

Heerenveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

GO Ahead Eagles or draw

69%

GO Ahead Eagles or Heerenveen

76%

Draw or Heerenveen

55%

Winning margin

GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+

23%

Heerenveen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals

81%

GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals

49%

GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals

23%

Heerenveen 1+ goals

73%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

38%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)

59%

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GO Ahead Eagles at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.44 + Heerenveen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Heerenveen attack 1.25 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GO Ahead Eagles scores more

45%

level

24%

Heerenveen scores more

31%

GO Ahead Eagles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GO Ahead Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff