Go Ahead Eagles U21 1–1 Volendam U21

Go Ahead Eagles U21

FT

1 – 1

Volendam U21

9/30/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 8Sportpark Zuiderlaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Go Ahead Eagles U2138%

×Draw25%

Volendam U2137%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Go Ahead Eagles U21Expected goals in this matchVolendam U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.43

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.44

Volendam U21

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

1.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.31

Volendam U21

1.29

allows per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.57

Volendam U21

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par

Volendam U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Ahead Eagles U21 ↓

Volendam U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or draw

63%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or Volendam U21

75%

Draw or Volendam U21

62%

Winning margin

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+

18%

Volendam U21 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals

76%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals

42%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals

18%

Volendam U21 1+ goals

76%

Volendam U21 2+ goals

42%

Volendam U21 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)

50%

Volendam U21 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

Volendam U21 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.31 + Volendam U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Volendam U21 attack 1.29 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more

38%

level

25%

Volendam U21 scores more

37%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Go Ahead Eagles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff