Go Ahead Eagles U21 1–2 Twente / Heracles U21

Go Ahead Eagles U21

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Twente / Heracles U21

11/23/2024

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 11Sportpark Zuiderlaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Go Ahead Eagles U2138%

×Draw23%

Twente / Heracles U2139%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Go Ahead Eagles U21Expected goals in this matchTwente / Heracles U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.70

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.67

Twente / Heracles U21

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

1.82

1.57

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.31

Twente / Heracles U21

1.82

allows per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.57

Twente / Heracles U21

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Ahead Eagles U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or draw

61%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or Twente / Heracles U21

77%

Draw or Twente / Heracles U21

62%

Winning margin

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+

19%

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals

81%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals

50%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals

23%

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals

82%

Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals

51%

Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.31 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more

38%

level

23%

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more

39%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff