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Gnistan vs Musa — Ykkönen 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Musa
Musa
9/20/2020YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gnistan52%
×Draw23%
Musa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.83
Musa
1.22

Gnistan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 39 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.69
Musa
1.21

allows per match

Gnistan
1.23
Musa
1.97

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
Musa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

Musa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
75%
Gnistan or Musa
77%
Draw or Musa
48%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
29%
Musa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
84%
Gnistan 2+ goals
54%
Gnistan 3+ goals
28%
Musa 1+ goals
70%
Musa 2+ goals
34%
Musa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
67%
Musa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Musa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.69 + Musa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Musa attack 1.21 + Gnistan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gnistan scores more
52%
level
23%
Musa scores more
25%

Gnistan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gnistan 3 – 1 Musa

Gnistan beat Musa 3-1 in Ykkönen on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.