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Gnistan vs KäPa — Ykkönen 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KäPa
KäPa
7/2/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 13Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gnistan53%
×Draw22%
KäPa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
2.02
KäPa
1.33

Gnistan creates 52% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.69
KäPa
1.43

allows per match

Gnistan
1.23
KäPa
2.36

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
75%
Gnistan or KäPa
78%
Draw or KäPa
47%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
31%
KäPa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
87%
Gnistan 2+ goals
60%
Gnistan 3+ goals
33%
KäPa 1+ goals
74%
KäPa 2+ goals
38%
KäPa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
68%
KäPa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.69 + KäPa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.02

KäPa attack 1.43 + Gnistan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gnistan scores more
53%
level
22%
KäPa scores more
25%

Gnistan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gnistan 1 – 0 KäPa

Gnistan beat KäPa 1-0 in Ykkönen on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.