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Gnistan vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KaaPo
KaaPo
5/11/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 2Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gnistan53%
×Draw21%
KaaPo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
2.18
KaaPo
1.51

Gnistan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

creates per match

Gnistan
2.45
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

Gnistan
1.45
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
73%
Gnistan or KaaPo
79%
Draw or KaaPo
47%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
32%
KaaPo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
89%
Gnistan 2+ goals
64%
Gnistan 3+ goals
37%
KaaPo 1+ goals
78%
KaaPo 2+ goals
44%
KaaPo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
66%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.45 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.18

KaaPo attack 1.57 + Gnistan defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gnistan scores more
53%
level
21%
KaaPo scores more
27%

Gnistan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Gnistan 1–2 KaaPo

KaaPo beat Gnistan 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki).