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Gnistan vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
5/5/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 5Markku.fi Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gnistan36%
×Draw25%
Inter Turku39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.42
Inter Turku
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 118 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.49
Inter Turku
1.38

allows per match

Gnistan
1.59
Inter Turku
1.34

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
61%
Gnistan or Inter Turku
75%
Draw or Inter Turku
64%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
17%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
76%
Gnistan 2+ goals
41%
Gnistan 3+ goals
17%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
77%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
43%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
48%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.49 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + Gnistan defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gnistan scores more
36%
level
25%
Inter Turku scores more
39%

Inter Turku at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gnistan vs Inter Turku

Gnistan beat Inter Turku 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on May 5, 2026.

The match was played at Markku.fi Areena in Helsinki.