Gnistan 2–1 Ilves II: Result & Stats

Gnistan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ilves II

6/25/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 9Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gnistan53%

×Draw20%

Ilves II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GnistanExpected goals in this matchIlves II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.61

Gnistan

2.28

Ilves II

1.61

Gnistan creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 78 away

2.45

creates per match

1.77

1.45

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Gnistan

2.45

Ilves II

1.77

allows per match

Gnistan

1.45

Ilves II

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par

Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

Ilves II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw

73%

Gnistan or Ilves II

80%

Draw or Ilves II

47%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+

32%

Ilves II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals

90%

Gnistan 2+ goals

66%

Gnistan 3+ goals

39%

Ilves II 1+ goals

80%

Ilves II 2+ goals

48%

Ilves II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)

66%

Ilves II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Ilves II away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.10 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.45 + Ilves II defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.28

Ilves II attack 1.77 + Gnistan defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gnistan scores more

53%

level

20%

Ilves II scores more

27%

Gnistan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff