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Gnistan vs GrIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
1 – 1
GrIFK
GrIFK
8/16/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 16Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gnistan51%
×Draw21%
GrIFK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
2.10
GrIFK
1.52

Gnistan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 71 away

creates per match

Gnistan
2.45
GrIFK
1.58

allows per match

Gnistan
1.45
GrIFK
1.76

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
GrIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

GrIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
72%
Gnistan or GrIFK
79%
Draw or GrIFK
49%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
30%
GrIFK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
88%
Gnistan 2+ goals
62%
Gnistan 3+ goals
35%
GrIFK 1+ goals
78%
GrIFK 2+ goals
45%
GrIFK 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
64%
GrIFK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

GrIFK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.45 + GrIFK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.10

GrIFK attack 1.58 + Gnistan defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gnistan scores more
51%
level
21%
GrIFK scores more
28%

Gnistan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Gnistan 1–1 GrIFK

Gnistan and GrIFK drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki).