Gnistan O35 2–2 Sexypöxyt II: Result & Stats

Gnistan O35

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sexypöxyt II

3/18/2025

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundMustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gnistan O3538%

×Draw21%

Sexypöxyt II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gnistan O35Expected goals in this matchSexypöxyt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.02

Gnistan O35

1.92

Sexypöxyt II

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

2.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gnistan O35

2.50

Sexypöxyt II

1.67

allows per match

Gnistan O35

2.38

Sexypöxyt II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gnistan O35+0.00on par

Sexypöxyt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan O35 ↓

Sexypöxyt II →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Gnistan O35 or draw

59%

Gnistan O35 or Sexypöxyt II

79%

Draw or Sexypöxyt II

62%

Winning margin

Gnistan O35 wins by 2+

20%

Sexypöxyt II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gnistan O35 1+ goals

85%

Gnistan O35 2+ goals

57%

Gnistan O35 3+ goals

30%

Sexypöxyt II 1+ goals

87%

Sexypöxyt II 2+ goals

60%

Sexypöxyt II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Gnistan O35 (draw refunded)

48%

Sexypöxyt II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gnistan O35 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Sexypöxyt II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan O35 attack 2.50 + Sexypöxyt II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sexypöxyt II attack 1.67 + Gnistan O35 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gnistan O35 scores more

38%

level

21%

Sexypöxyt II scores more

41%

Sexypöxyt II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sexypöxyt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff