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Gnistan O35 vs PuiU Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Gnistan O35
Gnistan O35
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinkiadvanced
4/29/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 64Markku.fi Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gnistan O3518%
×Draw16%
PuiU Helsinki66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan O35
1.75
PuiU Helsinki
3.30

PuiU Helsinki creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gnistan O35
2.50
PuiU Helsinki
4.22

allows per match

Gnistan O35
2.38
PuiU Helsinki
1.00

finishing

Gnistan O35+0.00on par
PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan O35 ↓

PuiU Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Gnistan O35 or draw
34%
Gnistan O35 or PuiU Helsinki
84%
Draw or PuiU Helsinki
82%

Winning margin

Gnistan O35 wins by 2+
8%
PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Gnistan O35 1+ goals
83%
Gnistan O35 2+ goals
52%
Gnistan O35 3+ goals
25%
PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
96%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
83%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Gnistan O35 (draw refunded)
22%
PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan O35 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

PuiU Helsinki away — creates 4.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan O35 attack 2.50 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

PuiU Helsinki attack 4.22 + Gnistan O35 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gnistan O35 scores more
18%
level
16%
PuiU Helsinki scores more
66%

PuiU Helsinki at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Gnistan O35 1–1 PuiU Helsinki

Gnistan O35 and PuiU Helsinki drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Markku.fi Areena in Helsinki.