Gnistan O35 1–5 JäPS II: Result & Stats

Gnistan O35

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

JäPS II

4/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundPikkupekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gnistan O3525%

×Draw18%

JäPS II58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gnistan O35Expected goals in this matchJäPS II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.88

Gnistan O35

1.88

JäPS II

2.88

JäPS II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.50

creates per match

3.38

2.38

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gnistan O35

2.50

JäPS II

3.38

allows per match

Gnistan O35

2.38

JäPS II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gnistan O35+0.00on par

JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan O35 ↓

JäPS II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Gnistan O35 or draw

42%

Gnistan O35 or JäPS II

82%

Draw or JäPS II

75%

Winning margin

Gnistan O35 wins by 2+

12%

JäPS II wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Gnistan O35 1+ goals

85%

Gnistan O35 2+ goals

56%

Gnistan O35 3+ goals

29%

JäPS II 1+ goals

94%

JäPS II 2+ goals

78%

JäPS II 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Gnistan O35 (draw refunded)

30%

JäPS II (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gnistan O35 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

JäPS II away — creates 3.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan O35 attack 2.50 + JäPS II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

JäPS II attack 3.38 + Gnistan O35 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gnistan O35 scores more

25%

level

18%

JäPS II scores more

58%

JäPS II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff