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Gnistan / 3 vs VJS II — Suomen Cup 2018

Gnistan / 3
Gnistan / 3
FT
1 – 2
VJS II
VJS II
3/25/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundMustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gnistan / 317%
×Draw14%
VJS II69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan / 3
1.80
VJS II
3.60

VJS II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gnistan / 3
2.75
VJS II
4.71

allows per match

Gnistan / 3
2.50
VJS II
0.86

finishing

Gnistan / 3+0.00on par
VJS II+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan / 3 ↓

VJS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Gnistan / 3 or draw
31%
Gnistan / 3 or VJS II
86%
Draw or VJS II
83%

Winning margin

Gnistan / 3 wins by 2+
7%
VJS II wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Gnistan / 3 1+ goals
83%
Gnistan / 3 2+ goals
54%
Gnistan / 3 3+ goals
27%
VJS II 1+ goals
97%
VJS II 2+ goals
86%
VJS II 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Gnistan / 3 (draw refunded)
19%
VJS II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan / 3 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

VJS II away — creates 4.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan / 3 attack 2.75 + VJS II defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

VJS II attack 4.71 + Gnistan / 3 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gnistan / 3 scores more
17%
level
14%
VJS II scores more
69%

VJS II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "VJS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Gnistan / 3 1–2 VJS II

VJS II beat Gnistan / 3 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 25, 2025.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.