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Gneist vs Ullern II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gneist
Gneist
FT
2 – 1
Ullern II
Ullern II
4/16/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 2Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gneist59%
×Draw19%
Ullern II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.50
Ullern II
1.47

Gneist creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.00
Ullern II
1.08

allows per match

Gneist
1.85
Ullern II
4.00

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Ullern II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Ullern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
78%
Gneist or Ullern II
81%
Draw or Ullern II
41%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
39%
Ullern II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
92%
Gneist 2+ goals
71%
Gneist 3+ goals
45%
Ullern II 1+ goals
77%
Ullern II 2+ goals
43%
Ullern II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
73%
Ullern II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Ullern II away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.00 + Ullern II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Ullern II attack 1.08 + Gneist defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gneist scores more
59%
level
19%
Ullern II scores more
22%

Gneist at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gneist vs Ullern II

Gneist beat Ullern II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Blomsterdalen.