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Gneist vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gneist
Gneist
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Grorud II
Grorud II
10/15/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gneist36%
×Draw22%
Grorud II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.73
Grorud II
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.00
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Gneist
1.85
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
58%
Gneist or Grorud II
78%
Draw or Grorud II
64%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
18%
Grorud II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
82%
Gneist 2+ goals
52%
Gneist 3+ goals
25%
Grorud II 1+ goals
84%
Grorud II 2+ goals
55%
Grorud II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
47%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.00 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Gneist defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gneist scores more
36%
level
22%
Grorud II scores more
42%

Grorud II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Gneist 2–1 Grorud II

Gneist beat Grorud II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.