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Gneist vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gneist
Gneist
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
V. Byrkjeland 75'
V. Holsaether 38'
9/30/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 22Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gneist26%
×Draw22%
Gjelleråsen52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.38
Gjelleråsen
2.03

Gjelleråsen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.00
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Gneist
1.85
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
48%
Gneist or Gjelleråsen
78%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
74%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
11%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
75%
Gneist 2+ goals
40%
Gneist 3+ goals
16%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
87%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
60%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
33%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.00 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Gneist defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gneist scores more
26%
level
22%
Gjelleråsen scores more
52%

Gjelleråsen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
V. Holsaether
75'
V. Byrkjeland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Gneist 1–1 Gjelleråsen

Gneist and Gjelleråsen drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 30, 2023.

Goals: V. Holsaether (38'), V. Byrkjeland (75').

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.