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Gneist vs Austevoll — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Gneist
Gneist
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Austevoll
Austevoll
T. Sagstad 90', 22'
H. Brosvik Holst 53'
S. Aga 4'
A. Ramsay 90+4', 90+2'
A. Ssabunyo 85'
M. Dalseide 31'
G. Ramsay 28'
5/14/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist37%
×Draw18%
Austevoll45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.75
Austevoll
3.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Austevoll
2.83

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Austevoll
2.83

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Austevoll+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Austevoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
55%
Gneist or Austevoll
82%
Draw or Austevoll
63%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
22%
Austevoll wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
93%
Gneist 2+ goals
75%
Gneist 3+ goals
51%
Austevoll 1+ goals
95%
Austevoll 2+ goals
79%
Austevoll 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
45%
Austevoll (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Austevoll away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Austevoll defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Austevoll attack 2.83 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gneist scores more
37%
level
18%
Austevoll scores more
45%

Austevoll at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austevoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Aga
22'
T. Sagstad
28'
G. Ramsay
31'
M. Dalseide
53'
H. Brosvik Holst
85'
A. Ssabunyo
90'
T. Sagstad
90+2'
A. Ramsay
90+4'
A. Ramsay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gneist vs Austevoll

Austevoll beat Gneist 5-4 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 14, 2026.

Goals: S. Aga (4'), T. Sagstad (22', 90'), G. Ramsay (28'), M. Dalseide (31'), H. Brosvik Holst (53'), A. Ssabunyo (85'), A. Ramsay (90+2', 90+4').