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Gneist vs Askøy — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Askøy
Askøy
H. Brosvik Holst 52'
T. Sagstad 35', 5'
R. Vindenes 50'
L. Solheim 47'
4/26/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 4Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist41%
×Draw22%
Askøy37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.92
Askøy
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.33
Askøy
1.17

allows per match

Gneist
2.50
Askøy
2.50

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Askøy+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Askøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
63%
Gneist or Askøy
78%
Draw or Askøy
59%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
22%
Askøy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
85%
Gneist 2+ goals
57%
Gneist 3+ goals
30%
Askøy 1+ goals
84%
Askøy 2+ goals
54%
Askøy 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
52%
Askøy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Askøy away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.33 + Askøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Askøy attack 1.17 + Gneist defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gneist scores more
41%
level
22%
Askøy scores more
37%

Gneist at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
T. Sagstad
35'
T. Sagstad
47'
L. Solheim
50'
R. Vindenes
52'
H. Brosvik Holst

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Gneist 3–2 Askøy

Gneist beat Askøy 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Sagstad (5', 35'), L. Solheim (47'), R. Vindenes (50'), H. Brosvik Holst (52').

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.