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Gneist vs Åsane II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
Preview
17:00
Åsane II
Åsane II
9/7/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 18
40%
Gneist
model favours
40%20%40%

Their last 3 meetings averaged 6.3 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
82%
over 2.5 goals
80%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist40%
×Draw20%
Åsane II40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.25
Åsane II
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Åsane II
1.33

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Åsane II
1.83

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Åsane II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Åsane II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
60%
Gneist or Åsane II
80%
Draw or Åsane II
60%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
23%
Åsane II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
89%
Gneist 2+ goals
65%
Gneist 3+ goals
39%
Åsane II 1+ goals
89%
Åsane II 2+ goals
65%
Åsane II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
50%
Åsane II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Åsane II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Åsane II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Åsane II attack 1.33 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gneist scores more
40%
level
20%
Åsane II scores more
40%

Gneist at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gneist
LLWLD
II
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gneist vs Åsane II — Match Preview

Gneist face Åsane II on September 7, 2026 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.