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Gnas vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Gnas
Gnas
FT
3 – 0
Liezen
Liezen
3/17/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Sportplatz Gnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gnas61%
×Draw19%
Liezen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnas
2.31
Liezen
1.25

Gnas creates 85% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 42 away

creates per match

Gnas
1.89
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Gnas
1.74
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Gnas+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnas ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gnas or draw
80%
Gnas or Liezen
81%
Draw or Liezen
39%

Winning margin

Gnas wins by 2+
39%
Liezen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gnas 1+ goals
90%
Gnas 2+ goals
67%
Gnas 3+ goals
40%
Liezen 1+ goals
71%
Liezen 2+ goals
36%
Liezen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gnas (draw refunded)
75%
Liezen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnas attack 1.89 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.31

Liezen attack 0.76 + Gnas defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gnas scores more
61%
level
19%
Liezen scores more
20%

Gnas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gnas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gnas vs Liezen

Gnas beat Liezen 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Gnas in Gnas.