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Gnas vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Gnas
Gnas
CANC
16:30
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
6/11/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Sportplatz Gnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gnas59%
×Draw19%
Hitthaller St. Michael22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnas
2.40
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.41

Gnas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gnas
1.89
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Gnas
1.74
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Gnas+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnas ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gnas or draw
78%
Gnas or Hitthaller St. Michael
81%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
41%

Winning margin

Gnas wins by 2+
38%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gnas 1+ goals
91%
Gnas 2+ goals
69%
Gnas 3+ goals
42%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
76%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
41%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gnas (draw refunded)
73%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnas attack 1.89 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.40

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Gnas defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gnas scores more
59%
level
19%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
22%

Gnas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gnas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gnas host Hitthaller St. Michael

June 11, 2021: Gnas take on Hitthaller St. Michael in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gnas host Hitthaller St. Michael at Sportplatz Gnas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.