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Gnas vs FSC Hochegger Dächer — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Gnas
Gnas
CANC
18:00
FSC Hochegger Dächer
FSC Hochegger Dächer
3/22/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 18Sportplatz Gnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gnas38%
×Draw22%
FSC Hochegger Dächer40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnas
1.83
FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

creates per match

Gnas
1.89
FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.02

allows per match

Gnas
1.74
FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.77

finishing

Gnas+0.00on par
FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnas ↓

FSC Hochegger Dächer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gnas or draw
60%
Gnas or FSC Hochegger Dächer
78%
Draw or FSC Hochegger Dächer
62%

Winning margin

Gnas wins by 2+
20%
FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gnas 1+ goals
84%
Gnas 2+ goals
54%
Gnas 3+ goals
28%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals
85%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals
56%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gnas (draw refunded)
49%
FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnas attack 1.89 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.02 + Gnas defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gnas scores more
38%
level
22%
FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more
40%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gnas vs FSC Hochegger Dächer — Match Preview

Gnas face FSC Hochegger Dächer on March 22, 2024 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gnas host FSC Hochegger Dächer at Sportplatz Gnas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.