Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gnas vs Frauental — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Gnas
Gnas
FT
1 – 0
Frauental
Frauental
9/20/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Sportplatz Gnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Gnas43%
×Draw23%
Frauental34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnas
1.77
Frauental
1.57

Gnas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

creates per match

Gnas
1.89
Frauental
1.40

allows per match

Gnas
1.74
Frauental
1.65

finishing

Gnas+0.00on par
Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnas ↓

Frauental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gnas or draw
66%
Gnas or Frauental
77%
Draw or Frauental
57%

Winning margin

Gnas wins by 2+
23%
Frauental wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gnas 1+ goals
83%
Gnas 2+ goals
53%
Gnas 3+ goals
26%
Frauental 1+ goals
79%
Frauental 2+ goals
46%
Frauental 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gnas (draw refunded)
55%
Frauental (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnas attack 1.89 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Frauental attack 1.40 + Gnas defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gnas scores more
43%
level
23%
Frauental scores more
34%

Gnas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gnas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Gnas 1–0 Frauental

Gnas beat Frauental 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Gnas in Gnas.